Friday, February 6, 2009

Drinking the Kool Aid

Here's the thing about gambling and confirmation bias - It's hard to tell if you are getting better or getting lucky. The reason for playing craps is that the goal is to minimize the house edge. On top of that, the shooter has some input to influence, and the theory is that through dice setting and controlled throws, one can tip the odds towards the player's favor.

That's why we practice. And without looking at the results of that practice, you're lying to yourself, so that's why we log our shooting and post them here.

Last night I won $100 in about 30 minutes at a $5 table, almost exclusively on my own shooting. I enjoyed an impressive series (sorry, no graph - the real casinos frown on keeping track in my phone!) including a fair amount of pass line odds and come bet odds at their maximums.

The real question here is: Am I getting better, or did I just get lucky?

No comments:

Post a Comment